2026 Winter Olympics - Very Early Predictions

[Josh 10,537]

1 hour ago, CCB said:

Dutch Winter Olympics is all about speedskating and shorttrack. 

 

In shorttrack we have a problem since Suzanne Schulting (3 times Olympic Champion) broke her ankle this year. After since it looks like she concentrates on speedskating on the long track. But in that sport she is not really that good. For shorttrack we have medal chances for Xandra Velzeboer on the 500 meters and Jens van 't Wout on the men's distances, although Danjinou from Canada is in a league of his own.

 

In speedskating we have several medal chances, but I'm expecting not that much gold, considering Jordan Stolz (500/1000/1500) and Davide Ghiotto (5000/10000) winning the gold medals on the classic distances almost for sure. There will be some silver and bronze on the men's side however (Patrick Roest (5000), Kjeld Nuis (1500), Tim Prins (1000) and maybe Jenning de Boo (500)).

 

On the women's side there is Miho Takagi (1000/1500) and Ragne Wiklund (3000/5000) and the Canadian women. But also chances for Dutch gold with Jutta Leerdam (1000), Joy Beune (1500/3000), Marijke Groenewoud (mass/3000) and Merel Conijn (5000). Unless Leerdam will continue travelling with Jake Paul and focus on her boyfriend's stupid influence-career more than on her own career. 

 

2 medals in short track, 10 medals in speedskating, but not many golden!

I think you’re being too pessimistic as usual, you really need to have more belief in the Dutch athletes 

 

Xandra is one of the top women in the 1000m, and all three relays should also provide solid medal chances. Maybe Daleman will develop as a contender in the next few years?
 

Roest is in the mix in the 10000m, Rijpma de Jong in the 1500/3000m, Leerdam in the 500m, as is your men’s and women’s team pursuits.

[rafalgorka 1,557]

10 hours ago, CCB said:

Dutch Winter Olympics is all about speedskating and shorttrack. 

 

In shorttrack we have a problem since Suzanne Schulting (3 times Olympic Champion) broke her ankle this year. After since it looks like she concentrates on speedskating on the long track. But in that sport she is not really that good. For shorttrack we have medal chances for Xandra Velzeboer on the 500 meters and Jens van 't Wout on the men's distances, although Danjinou from Canada is in a league of his own.

 

In speedskating we have several medal chances, but I'm expecting not that much gold, considering Jordan Stolz (500/1000/1500) and Davide Ghiotto (5000/10000) winning the gold medals on the classic distances almost for sure. There will be some silver and bronze on the men's side however (Patrick Roest (5000), Kjeld Nuis (1500), Tim Prins (1000) and maybe Jenning de Boo (500)).

 

On the women's side there is Miho Takagi (1000/1500) and Ragne Wiklund (3000/5000) and the Canadian women. But also chances for Dutch gold with Jutta Leerdam (1000), Joy Beune (1500/3000), Marijke Groenewoud (mass/3000) and Merel Conijn (5000). Unless Leerdam will continue travelling with Jake Paul and focus on her boyfriend's stupid influence-career more than on her own career. 

 

2 medals in short track, 10 medals in speedskating, but not many golden!

You forgot Marcel van deer Hirscher 😎

[CCB 565]

16 minutes ago, rafalgorka said:

You forgot Marcel van deer Hirscher 😎

Totally forgot him, what a shame. I'm still not used to the fact he is Dutch now.

 

And I forgot Kimberley Bos in skeleton too. She can be a real medal contender. 

[rafalgorka 1,557]

1 minute ago, CCB said:

Totally forgot him, what a shame. I'm still not used to the fact he is Dutch now.

 

And I forgot Kimberley Bos in skeleton too. She can be a real medal contender. 

I will be cheering for Boś! Any Dutch Winter medal with no skates on is special fun

[dobar_73 69]

I think that I will be more happy with Serbia sending a larger delegation than 3, then we can maybe start talking about a placing better than 14th (our best result as Serbia) 

 

 

[orangeman 1,993]

On 11/16/2024 at 2:43 AM, Topicmaster1010 said:

We could do a breakdown of  Canada's medal chances by sport. Overall, I'd say Canada is in line to win a number of medals in the high 20's.

 

Alpine Skiing: Not too familiar with this sport but we did win 3 medals in Olympic events at the last World Championships and skiers like James Crawford, Cameron Alexander and Valerie Grenier are capable of making podiums on the World Cup. 0-3 medals would be the likely range here.

 

Biathlon: The program is declining. At this point, the better question is whether or not we can qualify both the men's and womens' relays.

 

Bobsleigh: Another declining sport. The men's team is completely existent following Justin Kripps retirement. On the women's side, maybe 1 medal is possible.

 

Cross-Country Skiing: Antoine Cyr would be the most likely candidate to medal in this sport. He was 10th in the overall world cup standings last year and it'll be interesting to see if he can improve on that. 0 medals is still likely though.

 

Curling: 3 medals will be the expectation but Canada has underperformed greatly at the last 2 Olympics so who knows.

 

Figure Skating: Possible medals in pairs, ice dance and the team event. If Russia is back, then the medal chances greatly decrease.

 

Freestyle Skiing: As always, many medal contenders across almost all disciplines. Around 8 medals should be the expectation here.

 

Ice Hockey: With the supposed return of NHL players to the Olympics, the expectation will be two gold medals or there'll be riots.

 

Luge: Likely to be a young team sent to the games. Maybe a medal chance in 2030 but not here.

 

Nordic Combined: I'll eat a sock if we qualify an athlete in Nordic Combined

 

Short Track: Lot's of potential for medals here. The men's team has been on fire to start the season with William Dandjinou looking like the best skater on the planet right now. Women's team is not as strong but also has some potential for medals. The minimum should be 3 medals with 8-10 medals possible if everything goes right.

 

Skeleton: Hallie Clarke is the reigning world champion but skeleton is pretty unpredictable so who knows. No chance on the men's side.

 

Ski Jumping: For the first time in probably ages, a legitimate medal in ski jumping is realistic thanks to Alexandria Loutitt and Abigail Strate. A medal in ski jumping would currently be my biggest wish.

 

Ski Mountaineering: No chance here.

 

Snowboarding: As always, the slopestyle and big air events will provide the biggest chances of medals for Canada. Grondin in snowboard cross also looks like the current favourite. Maybe a chance in women's halfpipe as well. Some surprise medals in some other events are also possible.

 

Speed Skating: The team is getting older but the top skaters are still capable of winning medals. Improving on the 5 medals won in Beijing should be a realistic expectation.

Great early breakdown. I agree with most of it, but I'll elaborate on three in particular:

 

Curling: I'm expecting a comeback after two very disappointing showings for Canada in Pyeongchang and Beijing. I think the national federation is taking it more seriously now that the world is catching up, especially in mixed doubles. I expect three medals, but a gold will be harder to come by. 

 

Hockey: As usual, women will be expected to win a gold. It'll be exciting seeing the men have NHL players, but I don't even think Canada will be a gold favourite. We simply do not have a goaltender. We have a couple of low-to-mid choices, so unless someone rises up suddenly in the next year it'll be hard to fight for gold. McDavid will only be able to do so much. USA, on the other hand, will have a very complete team with excellent goaltending. Even if Russia competes, they are the favourite right now. But, anything is possible in a one game elimination series. 

 

Short Track: This is currently our strongest team perhaps ever, which is surprising given how much stronger other countries have become recently (although the USA has dropped off the map almost completely). As you said, 3 is a minimum but as this team stands right now, they could run away with the medal table. However, short track is always unpredictable and anything can happen in the races. 

 

I agree, high 20s for total medals, could even get into the 30s if the stars align. I just hope Canada wins more golds this time. 4 in Beijing (and only one individual) was a tragedy. 

[erw 53]

Medal contenders for South Korea in 2026 winter olympics. Maybe bit less than before. 

(In Beijing, 2G 5S 2B)

 

Short track skating

1~2 Gold , 4~5 total medals

In Men's 1000m or 1500m, 23/24 Crystal Globe winner Ji-Won Park and other players would try to get 1 gold medal, against Canadian team (Dandjinou/Dubois) who would try to sweep the gold medals. 

In Women's 1000m and/or 1500m, returned three-time olympic champion Min-Jeong Choi and recent Crystal Globe winner Gil-li Kim is one of the best gold medal contender, and would divide the medals with Netherlands,Belgium (Velzeboer, Schulting, Desmet) and USA team (Santos-Griswold,Stoddard). 

Including 1~2 medals in each men/women discipline, 1~2 extra medals could come in relay. There are many variables in the relay, so cannot guess much here. Anyway 1~2 Gold, 1~2 Silver, 1~2 Bronze = total 4~5 medals would be reasonable rough guess totally. 

 

 

Long track speed skating

1~2? medals : Women's 500m Min-Sun Kim (2024 World championship Silver medalist) and Men's Mass Start Jae-Won Chung (2022 Beijing Silver medalist) are the best medal prospects here.  

Although Korea got numerous medals in late olympics (Pyeongchang, Beijing), that generation got older, and no significant new players rise, except those two. 

 

 

Others with slight chances for top 3: total 1~2 medals

 - Snowboarding-Halfpipe: latest WC winner (Men) Chaeun Lee Recently rise as a medal prospect. In women's halfpipe, 16 year old Ga-On Choi is also worth watching, won in 2nd world cup 23/24 season.

 - Curling : possible 1 medal in Women's team. Not a concrete contender, but always have possibilities for semifinal and more.  

 - Skeleton : possible 1 medal in  Men's Skeleton for Seung-gi Jung, who is one of the rising players. 3rd in 2023 WC, etc.

 - etc : Very small chance for Women's figure skating. But performance of players weren't good enough in this season. 

 

 

Totally, 1~2 Gold, 6~8 total medals expected. 

 

 

Edited November 18 by erw

[rafalgorka 1,557]

My early bets. I know it doesn't make any sense 15 months before the games and before 24/25 winter season really started. But what the hell - I just like PREDICTIONS

 

So this is just for fun, if i were you i wouldn't look at it when i went to the bookies

 

But i will try to update it while the season unfolds and in April 25 it will be more interesting.

 

DAY 1

 

1. SPEED SKATING - W 3000m

 

1. Irene Schouten NED

2. Isabelle Weidemann CAN

3. Ragne Wiklund NOR

 

2. SNOWBOARD - M Big Air

 

1. Su Yiming CHN

2. Kira Kimura JPN

3. Taiga Hasegawa JPN

 

3. ALPINE SKIING - M Downhill

 

1. Marco Odermatt SUI

2. Cyprien Sarrazin FRA

3. Dominik Paris ITA

 

(dark horses: Florian Schieder ITA, Cameron Alexander CAN)

 

4. SKI JUMPING - W Normal Hill Individual

 

1. Nika Prevc SLO

2. Alexandria Loutitt CAN

3. Eirin Maria Kvandal NOR

 

5. CROSS-COUNTRY SKIING - W 10km + 10km Skiathlon

 

1. Jessie Diggins USA

2. Victoria Carl GER

3. Ebba Andersson SWE

 

(dark horse: Kerttu Niskanen FIN)

 

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0-2-0---2

0-1-1---2

0-1-0---1

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Edited November 28 by rafalgorka

[rafalgorka 1,557]

DAY 2 events

 

6. SPEED SKATING - M 5000m

7. FIGURE SKATING - Team Event

8. SNOWBOARD - M Parallel Giant Slalom

9. SNOWBOARD - W Parallel Giant Slalom

10. ALPINE SKIING - W Downhill

11. LUGE - M Singles

12. BIATHLON - Mixed Relay 4x6km

13. CROSS-COUNTRY SKIING - M 10km + 10km Skiathlon

[Medard81 21]

On 11/16/2024 at 4:27 PM, TeamGB said:

My knowledge of Winter sport isn't great, and I feel I tend to be over optimistic but I'll give it a go for .

 

Alpine Skiing - Never won a medal before but Zak-Carrick Smith picked up 3 including 2 golds at the Winter Youth Olympics earlier in the year. It's clearly a very outside shot but we will see how he progresses. Dave Ryding could also medal on his day, although he will be 39 in 2026

 

Bobsleigh - Brad Hall and Co have been in with a shot for a number of years now, winning numerous medals on the worlds circuit. 2026 will likely be their last but I can see them giving it a good go. Adele Nicoll is still a relative newbie but with another 2 seasons under her belt and some help from hall she could be a contender. 

 

Cross Country Skiing - Andrew Musgrave is still kicking around and he has won world cup medals in the past.

 

Curling - In 2022 our only medals came in curling. Bruce Mouat will certainly go in as one of the favourites, but the women's team is going through a bit of rebuilding. Double gold at the winter youth games bodes well for the future

 

Figure Skating - Fear and Gibson have looked good this year and could return us to the golden era of the 80's. 

 

Freestyle Skiing - Zoe Atkin and Kirsty Muir both won medals at last year world cup, and Atkin took silver at the worlds, so they would be medal contenders, but both in very crowded events

 

Short Track Speed Skating - Not really and serious opportunities after the retirement of Elise Christie. 

 

Skeleton - After an extremely disappointing Beijing, the team has bounced back well and will be competitive in all 3 events, it's nice to see the team having a range of strong athletes rather than being dominated by a couple of exceptional ones. We better not do to well though, or the American's may blame us for cheating again.

 

Snowboarding - Mia Brookes is the current world Champion, and would be the most likely to medal in 2026. In the Snowboard Cross, Charlotte Bankes will be up there, and I feel like Huw Nightingale could progress this year, after some great performances in the Mixed team event.

 

 

As is the case with British Winter Sport, there are no clear favourites in any events, but there is a nice mix of competitive athletes in a diverse range of sports. 

Agree with you on this. The only missed category was Long Track Speed Skating where Cornelius Kersten and Ellia Smeding have done a good job getting us involved in this event again after many years absence. He won a Bronze medal at 2023 worlds but both are realistically fringe contenders and main goal is to grow the sport here.

 

As for our general chances by British standards we tend to do well at the various world championships before a Winter Olympics to raise hopes and then several dont quite deliver when its time. Would prefer the reverse to happen where we save our best for 2026 and help boost our Winter sports growth.