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Paris 2024 Medal Predictions - Australia Road to Paris 2024


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18 hours ago, dantm said:

SOPAC is nearly 30 years old but its still a fantastic pool.

it was designed based on those parameters from that article.

 

Definitely wouldve been a better option than Chandler.

 

 

It was fun having them in Chandler and ultimately trials is about qualifying, so slower pool isn’t a bad thing for those who qualified. The people it hurts is those who just missed the QT

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Ok this topic has died a little. So let’s do a little fun analysis.

 

For the first time since Melbourne it looks like we have a chance at topping the swimming medal table. USA seems like the only other team capable (maybe China but USA and AUS would both need to fall apart). This will hinge heavily on 3 key swimmers:

 

1. Kaylee McKeown: Has a gold chance in 100 back, 200 back and 200IM. The second favourite in these events are all Americans (Smith, Smith, Douglass). So if Kaylee wins all 3 that’s +3 to AUS, and if she loses all 3 it’s likely +3 to USA, which is a massive 6 gold swing.

 

2. Sam Short: Short looked like the favourite for the 400 and likely favourite for the 800 before he got sick and was off form at trials. The 400 won’t be won by an American but the 800 likely goes to Finke if not Short. So Short can get +2 to AUS, or possibly +1 to USA, so a potential 3 gold swing.

 

3. Ariarne Titmus: Titmus has a chance in the 200 free. Second favourite is MOC so if Titmus loses MOC should win, and if both lose then an American won’t win. Titmus is favourite in the 400, and it’s possible but quite unlikely American Ledecky wins if Titmus doesn’t. Ledecky is the favourite in the 800, but Titmus has a very outside chance. If Titmus (or Titmus + MOC) wins all 3 that’s a +3 to AUS, or possibly a +2 to USA if she loses them all, making a 5 medal swing.

 

So overall, these 3 swimmers represent a best case scenario of +8 to AUS or a worst case scenario of +6 to USA, a 14 gold medal swing. We can pretty confidently say if we get 0/8 there is no possibility we top the medal table (and likely aren’t in the top 3), but if we win all 8 then that alone might be enough. Add strong potential in W100 free, 100 free relay and 200 free relay, and if these three can all pull off all their swims we will likely win.

 

Now just to be clear it is extremely unlikely we convert all 8 of these (both 800s are especially unlikely) but hey it’s fun to dream haha

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The first night is going to be very telling, as if we win 3 golds (w400f m400f and w4x100) and realistically like a bronze in the m4x100 then the chance for us to top the tally is on.

 

Honestly the men’s 400 free situation is so frustrating as when I heard hafnaoui wasn’t competing I was thinking surely we will cruise to it, but unfortunately the German guy had other plans and now neither short or winnington is going to be favourite heading in 
 

 

 

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On the first night of Fukuoka I commented that if we won 4/4 golds (not counting the men’s 400IM which we were never winning) we would top the medal table and we did.

 

I agree the first night will tell us a lot, and here are my predictions:

 

4/4 gold - Not possible but we are 100% topping the tally

3/4 gold and USA doesn’t win the 4th - we are topping the tally 

3/4 gold and USA wins the 4th - we have a strong chance but it’ll be close

2/4 gold - small chance of topping the tally but unlikely

0-1 gold - whole meet is cooked

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This thread died again so here’s a fun hypothetical:

 

Mollie wins gold in the 100 free. Arnie wins it in the 400 and 800 free (obviously these events aren’t in order but bear with me). Who do you want to win the 200 free?

 

Arnie - If Arnie does it she gets a legendary triple, as well as cementing the double double and putting herself in the top 3 women all time for individual Olympic medals, and overall medallists.

 

Mollie - If Mollie does it she is the first woman not from East Germany to do the 100-200 double at the Olympics, and quite possibly ends the meet with 4 gold medals, which would catapult her to 3rd all time in Olympic medals for women.

 

Would you prefer Arnie cements herself as a legend, or Mollie throws her name in the legend hat for the first time?

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Definitely Arnie winning the triple and cementing herself as a legend. 
800free is obviously going to be a challenge but Ledecky wasn’t anything crazy at US trials. 
  
 

It is certainly a rare privilege that we have both of them tho 😂

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