vinipereira 3,037 Posted March 12, 2023 #1541 Share Posted March 12, 2023 The Oscars are this sunday, so naturally here I am with my annual predictions post. Last year was very predictable, so much that I got 22/23 correct picks. This most certainly won't happen this year, as we finally have some exciting races across the board (Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress are very hard to predict). It's been some time we don't have a Best Picture winner that also wins 6 or more Oscars. This could happen this time if the Academy goes crazy for Everything Everywhere. Right now I'm predicting 6 wins, but I can see a scenario where it wins 8 (extremely optimistic) or just 4 awards. Hopefully we get some surprise wins cause last year ceremony was kinda boring ("slap" fiasco aside). Almost managed to watch all the 54 nominated movies (including shorts), except for Avatar: The Way of Water, which had only dubbed sessions at the nearby theaters (and so far isn't available on streaming/VOD). ["will win" is my prediction / "could win" is my alternate prediction / "should win" is my personal ranking from what I've watched / "shoud have been nominated" is a way to remember other notable work]. Spoiler Best Picture WILL WIN: Everything Everywhere All at Once COULD WIN: The Banshees of Inisherin SHOULD WIN: 1. Tár; 2. Everything Everywhere All at Once; 3. Top Gun: Maverick; 4. The Banshees of Inisherin; 5. The Fabelmans; 6. Women Talking; 7. Elvis; 8. All Quiet on the Western Front; 9. Triangle of Sadness. Not watched: Avatar: The Way of Water. SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Aftersun Directing WILL WIN: Everything Everywhere All at Once, Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert COULD WIN: The Fabelmans, Steven Spielberg SHOULD WIN: 1. Tár, Todd Field; 2. Everything Everywhere All at Once, Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert; 3. The Fabelmans, Steven Spielberg; 4. The Banshees of Inisherin, Martin McDonagh; 5. Triangle of Sadness, Ruben Östlund. SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Decision to Leave, Park Chan-wook Actor in a Leading Role WILL WIN: Austin Butler, Elvis COULD WIN: Brendan Fraser, The Whale SHOULD WIN: 1. Paul Mescal, Aftersun; 2. Bill Nighy, Living; 3. Brendan Fraser, The Whale; 4. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin; 5. Austin Butler, Elvis. SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Franz Rogowski, Great Freedom Actress in a Leading Role WILL WIN: Cate Blanchett, Tár COULD WIN: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once SHOULD WIN: 1. Cate Blanchett, Tár; 2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once; 3. Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie; 4. Ana de Armas, Blonde; 5. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans. SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Danielle Deadwyler, Till Actor in a Supporting Role WILL WIN: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once COULD WIN: Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin SHOULD WIN: 1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once; 2. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway; 3. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin; 4. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin; 5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans. SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Mark Rylance, Bones and All Actress in a Supporting Role WILL WIN: Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once COULD WIN: Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin SHOULD WIN: 1. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once; 2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin; 3. Hong Chau, The Whale; 4. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; 5. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once. SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth Writing (Adapted Screenplay) WILL WIN: Women Talking COULD WIN: All Quiet on the Western Front SHOULD WIN: 1. Living; 2. Women Talking; 3. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery; 4. Top Gun: Maverick ; 5. All Quiet on the Western Front. SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Happening Writing (Original Screenplay) WILL WIN: Everything Everywhere All at Once COULD WIN: The Banshees of Inisherin SHOULD WIN: 1. Tár; 2. Everything Everywhere All at Once; 3. The Banshees of Inisherin; 4. The Fabelmans; 5. Triangle of Sadness. SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Close Animated Feature Film WILL WIN: Pinocchio COULD WIN: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On SHOULD WIN: 1. Pinocchio; 2. Turning Red; 3. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On; 4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish; 5. The Sea Beast. SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Apollo 10 1⁄2: A Space Age Childhood Documentary Feature WILL WIN: Navalny COULD WIN: Fire of Love SHOULD WIN: 1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed; 2. Fire of Love; 3. All That Breathes; 4. A House Made of Splinters; 5. Navalny. SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: The Territory International Feature Film WILL WIN: All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany) COULD WIN: Argentina, 1985 (Argentina) SHOULD WIN: 1. Close (Belgium); 2. Argentina, 1985 (Argentina); 3. The Quiet Girl (Ireland); 4. EO (Poland); 5. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany). SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Decision to Leave (South Korea) and Joyland (Pakistan). Cinematography WILL WIN: All Quiet on the Western Front COULD WIN: Elvis SHOULD WIN: 1. Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths; 2. Tár; 3. All Quiet on the Western Front; 4. Elvis; 5. Empire of Light. SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Top Gun: Maverick Film Editing WILL WIN: Everything Everywhere All at Once COULD WIN: Top Gun: Maverick SHOULD WIN: 1. Everything Everywhere All at Once; 2. Top Gun: Maverick; 3. Tár; 4. Elvis; 5. The Banshees of Inisherin. SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Decision to Leave Costume Design WILL WIN: Elvis COULD WIN: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever SHOULD WIN: 1. Babylon; 2. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris; 3. Elvis; 4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; 5. Everything Everywhere All at Once. SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: The Wonder Production Design WILL WIN: Babylon COULD WIN: Elvis SHOULD WIN: 1. Babylon; 2. The Fabelmans; 3. Elvis; 4. All Quiet on the Western Front. Not watched: Avatar: The Way of Water. SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths Makeup and Hairstyling WILL WIN: Elvis COULD WIN: The Whale SHOULD WIN: 1. Elvis; 2. The Batman; 3. All Quiet on the Western Front; 4. The Whale; 5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: The Northman Music (Original Score) WILL WIN: All Quiet on the Western Front COULD WIN: Babylon SHOULD WIN: 1. Babylon; 2. Everything Everywhere All at Once; 3. The Banshees of Inisherin; 4. All Quiet on the Western Front; 5. The Fabelmans. SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Bones and All Music (Original Song) WILL WIN: "Naatu Naatu", RRR COULD WIN: "Lift Me Up", Black Panther: Wakanda Forever SHOULD WIN: 1. "Naatu Naatu", RRR; 2. "Hold My Hand", Top Gun: Maverick; 3. "Lift Me Up", Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; 4. "This Is a Life", Everything Everywhere All at Once; 5. "Applause", Tell It Like a Woman. SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: "(You Made It Feel Like) Home", Bones and All Sound WILL WIN: Top Gun: Maverick COULD WIN: All Quiet on the Western Front SHOULD WIN: 1. Top Gun: Maverick; 2. The Batman; 3. Elvis; 4. All Quiet on the Western Front. Not watched: Avatar: The Way of Water. SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Nope Visual Effects WILL WIN: Avatar: The Way of Water COULD WIN: Top Gun: Maverick SHOULD WIN: 1. Top Gun: Maverick; 2. The Batman; 3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; 4. All Quiet on the Western Front. Not watched: Avatar: The Way of Water. SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: RRR Short Film (Animated) WILL WIN: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse COULD WIN: My Year of Dicks SHOULD WIN: 1. An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It; 2. Ice Merchants; 3. My Year of Dicks; 4. The Flying Sailor; 5. The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse. Short Film (Documentary) WILL WIN: Stranger at the Gate COULD WIN: The Elephant Whisperers SHOULD WIN: 1. Haulout; 2. The Martha Mitchell Effect; 3. How Do You Measure a Year?; 4. The Elephant Whisperers; 5. Stranger at the Gate. Short Film (Live Action) WILL WIN: An Irish Goodbye COULD WIN: Le Pupille SHOULD WIN: 1. Le Pupille; 2. The Red Suitcase; 3. An Irish Goodbye; 4. Ivalu; 5. Night Ride. LDOG 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinipereira 3,037 Posted March 12, 2023 #1542 Share Posted March 12, 2023 If I was a Oscar voter, this would be my top 10 (alphabetic order): Aftersun Bones and All Close Decision to Leave Everything Everywhere All at Once Happening* Joyland Living Tár The Wonder Special Citation (Documentaries): All the Beauty and the Bloodshed The Territory *released in 2021, but watched after I did my top 10 list last year Spoiler Great Performances: Anamaria Vartolomei, Happening Bill Nighy, Living Cate Blanchett, Tár Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth Danielle Deadwyler, Till Eden Dambrine, Close Franz Rogowski, Great Freedom Hong Chau, The Menu Jack Lowden, Benediction Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once Mark Rylance, Bones and All Paul Mescal, Aftersun Rasti Farooq, Joyland Tang Wei, Decision to Leave Olympian1010 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olympian1010 7,417 Posted March 12, 2023 #1543 Share Posted March 12, 2023 @vinipereira any other films from the last year or two outside your top 10 you’d recommend? I want to get more into top quality artistic cinema. It provides a nice balance between international sports, writing, and other hobbies I welcome recommendations from any other users as well “Sport has the power to change the world. It has the power to inspire. Sport can create hope where once there was only despair” - Nelson Mandela Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinipereira 3,037 Posted March 12, 2023 #1544 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 hour ago, Olympian1010 said: @vinipereira any other films from the last year or two outside your top 10 you’d recommend? I would say Apollo 10½, Catherine Called Birdy, Cha Cha Real Smooth, Fire Island, Funny Pages, Three Months, Top Gun: Maverick and probably The Northman would complete the top 20 after those 10 + 2 documentaries. But of course there's much more as I try to watch as many movies as I can... Olympian1010 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Federer91 2,112 Posted March 13, 2023 #1545 Share Posted March 13, 2023 It speaks volumes the below zero interest here for the Oscars, as the past year hit another milestone for awful movies. Last year ceremony had some glimmer of light in the movies, but this one wasn't so lucky. Though i had fun at Angela Bassett's skank face, when Jamie Lee Curtis won and her refusal to stand up, until she was the only one left and had to do it out of spite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinipereira 3,037 Posted March 13, 2023 #1546 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/11/2023 at 10:25 PM, vinipereira said: Last year was very predictable, so much that I got 22/23 correct picks. This most certainly won't happen this year, as we finally have some exciting races across the board. Got 17/23 correct picks this year, which is bad but not terrible. Really thought they would award Butler (biopic) and Blanchett (prestige drama), but I'm happy for Fraser and Yeoh too - although Blanchett's performance is one of the best of all time IMO. Really overestimated Elvis, predicting 3 wins when it won none, and underestimated The Whale (predicted none, won 2). Boring ceremony but good/aceptable wins overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monzanator 3,569 Posted March 13, 2023 #1547 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Totally missed the bonfire of vanity show. Heard Jamie Lee Curtis won and Brendan Fraser? Whoa! A long way from that devil comedy with Liz Hurley, George from The Jungle and The Mummy 20+ years ago In the streaming services era does anyone actually watch majority of the nominated movies anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LDOG 2,181 Posted March 14, 2023 #1548 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Does the academy ever publish the voting results? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heywoodu 13,499 Posted March 17, 2023 #1549 Share Posted March 17, 2023 Actor Lance Reddick has apparently suddenly passed away at age 60, he was found dead at his home this morning.... RIP Phillip Broyles If you'd like to help our fellow Totallympics member Bruna Moura get to the 2026 Winter Olympics, after her car crash on the way to the 2022 Olympics, every tiny bit of help would be greatly appreciated! Full story and how to help can be found here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grassmarket 2,715 Posted April 26, 2023 #1550 Share Posted April 26, 2023 (edited) Finally finished The Walking Dead after about 15 years. Was a great show for a while but ended up going around in circles a lot. Still had some good moments. Don’t like this idea that after 150 episodes or whatever of gore & extreme violence, what viewers want is a message of peace, love & brotherhood. Edited April 26, 2023 by Grassmarket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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