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DaniSRB

How Many Medals do You Expect from Your Nation at the Summer Olympic Games 2020? (2018 version)

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DaniSRB    472

2020YourNation.png

 

It's time to make early prediction. Post Olympic year is done and we are entering qualification period.

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vinipereira    898

Super early predictions indeed, but let's see.

 

I guess Brazil's situation can be compared only to Greece among the recent hosts:

 

Greece
Medals in Sydney: 13 (4 golds)
Medals in Athens: 16 (6 golds)
Medals in Beijing: 3 (no golds)

 

Brazil:
Medals in London: 17 (3 golds)
Medals in Rio: 19 (7 golds)
Medals in Tokyo: ???

 

If we're talking about total medals, Brazil and Greece didn't improve a lot at home compared to the previous edition, but had a very good result counting gold medals only. I expect a fall of those numbers for Tokyo, maybe not so big like Greece's, but right now I'm predicting 12 medals. (for this prediction, I won't predict the "colors", because it's too early for this)

 


Sports that gaves us medals in almost every edition since 1996

 

Volleyball/Beach Volleyball: 2 to 3 medals should be reachable.
Judo: 2 to 3 medals. I think we have a good chance at the new team event.
Football: 1 medal, but now that we have a gold, will we care to send the best team?
Sailing: 1 medal.

 

Total: 5-8 medals

 

 

Sports that occasionally gave us medals in the last two decades

 

Athletics/Swimming: I think we can reach 2 medals from the two big sports combined, or at least 1 (Open water?).
Canoeing: 1 medal should be possible if Isaquias mantains his level.
Boxing/Taekwondo: 1 medal, but I could easily see Brazil getting none here.
Equestrian/Gymnastics/Modern Pentathlon/Shooting: maybe 1 medal among these.

 

Total: 2-5 medals

 

 

The other sports (including the "new" ones)

 

Basketball: the only other sport not previously mentioned in which we have medals. Pretty sure we won't return to the podium in Tokyo (we won't even qualify).
Karate/Skateboarding/Surfing: If everything goes according to plan, we should get at least 2 medals among those. If not, at least 1 medal.
Other sports: unless some new name rises, I don't think we will medal in a new sport (except for the ones included for the first time in Tokyo). Tennis should be a possibility, but Melo/Soares aren't great playing together.

 

Total: 1-2 medals

 


Pessimistic: 8 medals
Optmistic: 15 medals
Early prediction: 12 medals

 

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intoronto    328

For Canada this has to be the most successful Olympics minus La84.

 

I would estimate 23-26 medals.

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LDOG    481

This is super duper early.

 

I can't make any serious prediction this early, but I can make an "analysis" of the current situation of our top athletes..


Medalists in Rio 2016:

-Field Hockey men's NT: Currently ranked 2nd, won silver medal at most recent world league, same coach but a high average age of players. Honestly I don't think they can keep the level until 2020.
-Paula Pareto (Judo): Took almost complete off year in 2017 to focus on her job. Will come back to compete in full calendar this year. Change of rules doesn't favor her defensive Judo, but who knows.
-Nacra 17 team (Sailing): barely took part in competitions last year, had poor WCh. Santiago Lange is too old, so it's to be seen if he can make 2020 healthy.
-Juan Martin del Potro (Tennis): Currently ranked 10th, is playing well and doesn't show signs of injury/decline. Will be 31 in Tokyo.

 

4th to 8th place finishers in Rio 2016:

-Basketball men's NT: Many old players retired, youngsters aren't as good. Don't think they can fight for anything high soon.
-Hockey women's NT: Had a "disappointing" 5th place in world league (with an unfair system IMO), u21 team won wch in 2016 and now many of those impressive young girls have been introduced to senior NT. Will and has to challenge for Gold in 2020.
-Rugby Sevens men's NT: Every 4 years is start again for this team with many players moving to XV rugby. Is having ok performances, with young players improving. Had great 2nd place in latest Cape Town stage.
-Volleyball men's NT: Had ok year in world league without Facundo Conte in all the season and without De Cecco in most games. U23 team won Wch, many young and exciting players are rising, to be seen if they challenge the top teams.
-Alberto Melian and Yamil Peralta (Boxing): Melian is pro now, Peralta remains in olympic team but he never seems to improve.
-Matias Albarracin (Equestrian Jumping): Don't know if he has done anything after Rio.
-Emiliano Grillo (Golf): Had an average 2017, not much to say, he's still far from the top players.
-Klaus Lange & Yago Lange (Sailing 49er): they usually are within top 10 in all competitions, still have to make the "big jump".
-Patricia Bermudez (Freestyle Wrestling): Had poor Wch, but you never know.. it's not that difficult to improve in female wrestling.


Special mention:

-Federico Gil (skeet shooting): Almost always makes the final or wins medals in world cups, but still has to perform well in a big competition. Good option for our "dark horse" in 2020 though.


Medalists in junior/youth world championships over the last 4 years:

-Agustin Vernice (canoe-kayak): won 2 medals in last U23 WCh, then was 7th place at senior Wch in K1-1000.
-Exequiel Torres & Gonzalo Molina (Cycling BMX): Torres won gold in junior Wch 2015, Molina won silver in 2014. Both made a 1-2 finish in last year world cup stage in Santiago del Estero with all top riders present. Will be 23/24 in Tokyo, perfect age to make upset maybe?
-Tomas Contte (Track Cycling): won silver at cadet Wch 2016 in omnium.
-Agustin Gil (Judo): won silver at last cadet Wch in -81kg.
-Francisco Saubidet Birkner (Sailing RSX): gold medal in 2014 YOG, silver x2 in 2014 and 2015 youth Wch. Now transitioning to senior.
-Facundo Olezza (Sailing Finn): Won bronze at last year's U23 Wch. In senior has been already 9th in Rio and 8th at last year's Gold Cup.
-Delfina Pignatiello (Swimming): at last year's junior WCh she won gold in 800 and 1500 freestyle and silver in the 400m. Her time in the 1500 was 5th best in the world last year. Will be aged 20 in Tokyo which is pretty much the "prime" for female swimmers.

 

 

 

Edited by LDOG
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Agger    323

I would guess 10-12 medals for Denmark seems reasonable to believe in.

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De_Gambassi    236

New sports/events should help to bring us to ~45 medals. If Paris 2024 brings its first fruits we may look at ~50 medals.

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DaniSRB    472
1 hour ago, De_Gambassi said:

New sports/events should help to bring us to ~45 medals. If Paris 2024 brings its first fruits we may look at ~50 medals.

were people in France satisfied with 2016 performance? As international French supporter,  10 golds for me were very little :(, and that disaster in track cycling :facepalm:

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De_Gambassi    236
il y a 3 minutes, DaniSRB a déclaré:

were people in France satisfied with 2016 performance? As international French supporter,  10 golds for me were very little :(, and that disaster in track cycling :facepalm:

 

The early Rio days were a disaster (something like one medal after four days), so at the end of the day, it was ok/satisfactory (considering the early days, it could have been soooooooo much worse).

 

IIRC, 42 medals was the objective which would have been a record in modern days (which now have been beaten again by... Beijing 08 thanks to doping cases :p) Golds were lacking a bit indeed, but the overall 7th spot in the medals table was judged fine..

 

Track cycling was indeed a disaster (only one bronze medal). It's the one sport (whith perhaps swimming) where we should gain a lot in Tokyo (if anything, Mathilde Gros should make sure of it). Boxing (6 medals) will certainly take a hit, but the introcution of Karate will hopefully compensate it.

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dcro    2,242
10 minutes ago, De_Gambassi said:

 

The early Rio days were a disaster (something like one medal after four days), so at the end of the day, it was ok/satisfactory (considering the early days, it could have been soooooooo much worse).

 

IIRC, 42 medals was the objective which would have been a record in modern days (which now have been beaten again by... Beijing 08 thanks to doping cases :p) Golds were lacking a bit indeed, but the overall 7th spot in the medals table was judged fine..

 

Track cycling was indeed a disaster (only one bronze medal). It's the one sport (whith perhaps swimming) where we should gain a lot in Tokyo (if anything, Mathilde Gros should make sure of it). Boxing (6 medals) will certainly take a hit, but the introcution of Karate will hopefully compensate it.

 

Certain equestrian medals were handed out on the 4th day... :p

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De_Gambassi    236
Juste maintenant , dcro a déclaré:

 

Certain equestrian medals were handed out on the 4th day... :p

 

You... have a great memory. The 4th day was ineed great with five medals, including the two equestrian ones. We only had one before that day.

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Quasit    130

Unlike GB who don't care about half the sports, I can picture France winning at least one medal in almost every sport.

Doubtful though in Badminton, Synchronised Swimming, Rhythmic Gymnastics, Water Polo and Table Tennis (excluding the 5 new sports for the Tokyo programme) but who knows, a lot can happen in 6,5 years from now.

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Griff88    179

1 - Badminton - Men's doubles

 

Maybe weightlifting can do something...

 

But as everyone said, it is way too early. Maybe after the Asian Games I can see a better picture

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