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George_D

Swimming 2017 Discussion Thread

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OlympicsFan    82
vor 3 Stunden schrieb dareza:

 

Thanks:)

 

I guess that Marrit Steenbergen will participate at EJC before this world championship. She is huge favorite in 50,100 and 200. Nyls Korstanje is also big talent.

How is she the huge favorite? Did Kesely decide to not compete? And what about Anderson (100 free) and Gose (200 free)?

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dareza    264
4 minutes ago, OlympicsFan said:

How is she the huge favorite? Did Kesely decide to not compete? And what about Anderson (100 free) and Gose (200 free)?

 

Kesely on 200 yes, but I don't think that Andreson and Gose can beat her.

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OlympicsFan    82
vor 3 Stunden schrieb dareza:

 

Kesely on 200 yes, but I don't think that Andreson and Gose can beat her.

You seem to be one of the very few users here who are interested in swimming outside of world championships/olympics, so you might have a use for it:

https://www.usaswimming.org/Home/times/data-hub

(Here you can find world rankings by age/date of birth)

For example Steenbergen is currently 5th in the 50 free world rankings of all girls born in 2000 or later (0.03 behind Anderson), 3rd in the 100 free (only behind Ikee and Oleksiak) and 5th in the 200 free (behind Ikee and 3 chinese girls, but Ruck and Oleksiak should also be able to go faster).

BTW: Have a look at the womens 100 free world rankings for girls born in 2000 or later ... the depth of the canadian girls is crazy (53.84 Oleksiak, 54.62 Sanchez, 54.97 Smith, 55.03 Ruck), if they all compete at the junior world championships, then they should absolutely destroy the junior world record in the 400 free relay and i think only Canada might be able to challenge Australia in 2020.

I probably agree about Anderson beating her in the 100 free, but the 50 free might be a different story and Gose improved her PB to 1:59.12 this year without even having tapered, so you would expect that she is able to go a lot faster at the german nationals next week, hopefully at least sub 1:58 (which would be a great time for a 14 year old). Last year she dropped 1.6s at the german nationals.

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OlympicsFan    82

German 200/400 free "star" Florian Vogel announced his retirement on Friday, at the age of 22 ...

Sadly i have to say that you have to be pretty crazy to train multiple hours a day as a german swimmer, because you will have a clear disadvantage in your career later on and you basically don't earn anything, so this is probably a smart decision, but a huge blow for german swimming, considering that he was by far the best german 200/400 free swimmer. Now the situation in men's 200/400 free seems to be pretty hopeless without Vogel and Biedermann.

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dareza    264
1 hour ago, OlympicsFan said:

You seem to be one of the very few users here who are interested in swimming outside of world championships/olympics, so you might have a use for it:

https://www.usaswimming.org/Home/times/data-hub

(Here you can find world rankings by age/date of birth)

For example Steenbergen is currently 5th in the 50 free world rankings of all girls born in 2000 or later (0.03 behind Anderson), 3rd in the 100 free (only behind Ikee and Oleksiak) and 5th in the 200 free (behind Ikee and 3 chinese girls, but Ruck and Oleksiak should also be able to go faster).

BTW: Have a look at the womens 100 free world rankings for girls born in 2000 or later ... the depth of the canadian girls is crazy (53.84 Oleksiak, 54.62 Sanchez, 54.97 Smith, 55.03 Ruck), if they all compete at the junior world championships, then they should absolutely destroy the junior world record in the 400 free relay and i think only Canada might be able to challenge Australia in 2020.

I probably agree about Anderson beating her in the 100 free, but the 50 free might be a different story and Gose improved her PB to 1:59.12 this year without even having tapered, so you would expect that she is able to go a lot faster at the german nationals next week, hopefully at least sub 1:58 (which would be a great time for a 14 year old). Last year she dropped 1.6s at the german nationals.

 

thanks for this site :):yes

 

Yes, swimming is one of my favorite sport and every week I follow some meeting. This week Mare Nostrum in Monaco.

 

A huge difference between Crevar and other European girls on 400IM :facepalm:I don't understand how. Last year she had good strong opponents, but this time probably will win this without problem. On WJC probably fight with girls from Japan.

Edited by dareza

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OlympicsFan    82
vor 22 Stunden schrieb dareza:

 

thanks for this site :):yes

 

Yes, swimming is one of my favorite sport and every week I follow some meeting. This week Mare Nostrum in Monaco.

 

A huge difference between Crevar and other European girls on 400IM :facepalm:I don't understand how. Last year she had good strong opponents, but this time probably will win this without problem. On WJC probably fight with girls from Japan.

It certainly looks as if this is a weaker generation of 400 IM talents, especially from Europe, but:

1) I am sure that some japanese/chinese/canadian/american girls will swim sub 4:40 at the junior world championships, so Crevar will have to perform at her very best if she wants to win a medal.

2) I dont think that a russian girl will come out of nowhere at the european junior championships, so Crevar could very well be the favorite, but i think some british or italian girls will be able to swim close to 4:40 by then + dont forget about Julia Mrozinski (4:42 last year, lets see what she can do at the german nationals this week).

3) Womens 400 IM in general seems to be one of the weaker events + the junior world record doesnt seem as crazy fast as some of the other junior world records + the winning times at junior world championships/youth olympics are normally not that fast either + Russia/China (who often have crazy talents), are normally not that good in womens 200/400 IM, which is certainly one of the reasons why it is easier to win a medal at junior level in this event, compared to some other events (for example womens 100 fly).

4) If you only look at the girls who are 1 year older (born in 1999), then you find a couple of very fast times:

4:36.60 for Harvey from Canada

4:37.25 for Wood from GB

So Crevar will need to drop a lot of time during the rest of the year and the beginning of next year, if she wants to keep up with those girls.

 

If you change the date range to 1/1/2016 to 12/31/2017, you can see that some girls born in 2000 had some really fast times last year and probably just didnt taper so far this year, so you can expect some of them to still improve this year (here are all the girls born in 2000, who had a time of sub 4:43 last year and might improve their times later on this year):

Runa Imai: 4:41.52

Anna Pirovano: 4:42.06

Julia Mrozinski: 4:42.39

Ajna Kesely: 4:42.53

I think Kesely will focus on 200/400 + maybe 800 free and i am not optimistic about Mrozinski, but i am pretty sure that at least one out of Pirovano/Imai will swim sub 4:40 later on this year.

 

Is Crevar still 16 years old or did she already turn 17? If she is still 16, she would be 8th in the american all-time ranking for 15/16 year olds and if she already turned 17, she would be 18th in the american all-time ranking for 17/18 year olds.

 

By the way: It is really fun to "play" with the junior world rankings and for example look at the world rankings only for girls born in 2002 or later.

 

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heywoodu    909

No Missy Franklin at the world champs, she's hasn't recovered yet from a shoulder surgery. 

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dareza    264
10 hours ago, OlympicsFan said:

It certainly looks as if this is a weaker generation of 400 IM talents, especially from Europe, but:

1) I am sure that some japanese/chinese/canadian/american girls will swim sub 4:40 at the junior world championships, so Crevar will have to perform at her very best if she wants to win a medal.

2) I dont think that a russian girl will come out of nowhere at the european junior championships, so Crevar could very well be the favorite, but i think some british or italian girls will be able to swim close to 4:40 by then + dont forget about Julia Mrozinski (4:42 last year, lets see what she can do at the german nationals this week).

3) Womens 400 IM in general seems to be one of the weaker events + the junior world record doesnt seem as crazy fast as some of the other junior world records + the winning times at junior world championships/youth olympics are normally not that fast either + Russia/China (who often have crazy talents), are normally not that good in womens 200/400 IM, which is certainly one of the reasons why it is easier to win a medal at junior level in this event, compared to some other events (for example womens 100 fly).

4) If you only look at the girls who are 1 year older (born in 1999), then you find a couple of very fast times:

4:36.60 for Harvey from Canada

4:37.25 for Wood from GB

So Crevar will need to drop a lot of time during the rest of the year and the beginning of next year, if she wants to keep up with those girls.

 

If you change the date range to 1/1/2016 to 12/31/2017, you can see that some girls born in 2000 had some really fast times last year and probably just didnt taper so far this year, so you can expect some of them to still improve this year (here are all the girls born in 2000, who had a time of sub 4:43 last year and might improve their times later on this year):

Runa Imai: 4:41.52

Anna Pirovano: 4:42.06

Julia Mrozinski: 4:42.39

Ajna Kesely: 4:42.53

I think Kesely will focus on 200/400 + maybe 800 free and i am not optimistic about Mrozinski, but i am pretty sure that at least one out of Pirovano/Imai will swim sub 4:40 later on this year.

 

Is Crevar still 16 years old or did she already turn 17? If she is still 16, she would be 8th in the american all-time ranking for 15/16 year olds and if she already turned 17, she would be 18th in the american all-time ranking for 17/18 year olds.

 

By the way: It is really fun to "play" with the junior world rankings and for example look at the world rankings only for girls born in 2002 or later.

 

 

she was born in May 24 00. So, 17.

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dareza    264
8 minutes ago, heywoodu said:

No Missy Franklin at the world champs, she's hasn't recovered yet from a shoulder surgery. 

 

I am really sorry for this girl :(  She could more than this.

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heywoodu    909
11 minutes ago, dareza said:

2:19.83 for Efimova :lol:

And Sjöström going under 24 seconds on 50 free again followed by a 56.27 on the 100 fly :lol: (or fly followed by free, not sure, but you get the point :p )

Edited by heywoodu

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dareza    264
Just now, heywoodu said:

And Sjöström going under 24 seconds on 50 free again followed by a 56.20 on the 100 fly :lol:

 

yes I saw :d Results are crazy. I can't imagine their results on world championship :rolleyes:

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