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Commonwealth Games 2018


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So Canada is predicting 100 medals at the Commonwealth Games and I don’t really know where they think they’ll get 18 extra medals relative to 2014. Here’s a quick breakdown.

 

Athletics

2014 Performance: 17 medals

With so many events things can be quite variable until we start seeing the performance from our athletes. For many of them (and other nations) this will be their first major competition of the outdoor season which can only add to the potential wackiness. On paper we should be able to match 2014’s performance though I’m not seeing us winning much more than 20 medals.

 

Badminton

2014 Performance: 1 medal

Michelle Li will be our best chance at winning a medal at the games and she isn’t guaranteed either. No one else really has a chance.

 

Basketball/Beach Volleyball vs. Judo

2014 Performance (Judo): 3 medals

Judo was replaced by basketball and beach volleyball and while there are only four events Canada has a chance at winning a medal in all of them. Men’s basketball is the least likely medal, but I feel strongly that we’ll be able to counter the lost medals from judo.

 

Boxing

2014 Performance: 3 medals

Boxing may not be strong in Canada, but the nation will have an opportunity to better their 2014 performance. The additional women’s events are helpful and overall Canada received favourable draws, avoiding many of the top nations until the semi-finals in most of the events.

 

Cycling

2014 Performance: 3 medals

Canada has already won two medals and are huge favourites to win one more in women’s mountain biking. Winning more medals in track cycling will be difficult given the nations competing, but arguably Canada has outside chances in a couple of more events which will be helpful.

 

Diving

2014 Performance: 7 medals

Canada had a really good performance in 2014 and it will be hard to match it. The women are maxed out and may even underperform relatively so it will be up to the men to snag more than the single medal won in 2014.

 

Gymnastics

2014 Performance: 15 medals

This will likely be a source of gained medals for Canada, mostly due to the women’s artistic team. Based on qualification the men are on pace to match 2014 while the women are on pace to win 7 vs. the 3 they won in 2014. The rhythmic team is relatively weaker this time, but should be a medal threat in all events.

 

Hockey

2014 Performance: 0 medals

Neither team is likely to win a medal here.

 

Lawn bowls

2014 Performance: 1 medal

Ryan Bester was a silver medalist at the 2016 worlds in singles while Kelly McKerihen won bronze. Both will be a medal threat, but it’ll be unlikely for both of them to win something.

 

Netball

2014 Performance: 0 medals

Canada is not participating.

 

Powerlifting

2014 Performance: 0 medals

Canada is not participating

 

Rugby sevens

2014 Performance: 0 medals

The women’s event was added meaning Canada will have a great chance at medaling here. Of course there is the chance it may finish fourth. The men are not likely to pose a threat for a medal, but anything can happen in this sport.

 

Shooting

2014 Performance: 3 medals

This will likely be Canada’s worst performing sport relative to 2014. I don’t see any medals won in this sport, though to be fair I don’t really know the rankings for the Queen’s Prize.

 

Squash

2014 Performance: 0 medals

It is unlikely that Canada will win a medal here.

 

Swimming

2014 Performance: 11 medals

As much as our women’s swimming team is talked about now, they weren’t too bad in 2014 either. Many of our most likely medal were already in events that Canada won in 2014. After the first two days I don’t see us beating our total by more than 2-3. The issue is the men’s side which haven’t really grown and are now without Cochrane. I honestly thought 0 medals for the men was possible, but at least Thormeyer has prevented the shutout.

 

Table tennis

2014 Performance: 1 medal

With Singapore and to a lesser extent England likely to soak up all the medals I’m having trouble giving anyone more of an outside chance. A medal to match 2014 is possible, but I don’t see it.

 

Triathlon

2014 Performance: 1 medal

Canada already matched 2014’s performance. Our only other chance will be in the relay. We definitely have a chance there, but I wouldn’t classify us as a medal favourite.

 

Weightlifting

2014 Performance: 4 medals

We have already won 2 medals. The women have three more chances for medals, though they could always bomb out like what happened in the 48kg. The men are favoured to win one medal, but the others will be competitive should somebody underperform.

 

Wrestling

2014 Performance: 12 medals

The reduction in events means Canada will have to win medals in all events just to match 2014. On paper we should win medals in all events, but all it would take is a bad draw or an upset to prevent a sweep.

Overall

Canada should perform better than 2014, but breaking triple digits will be hard to do. It’s definitely possible, but it would be at their upper range. Realistically, low 90s would be an average performance, but I guess that isn’t as flashy for the media.

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