heywoodu

Thing is, none of these are unrealistic other than maybe some of the sailing ones (I don't really watch sailing, probably also not during the Olympics so it's not like I really care that much about who wins those events ). And it's also not like these are the only sort of serious gold medal chances, so one could definitely exchange an event here or there. Like with any country it can go a lot of ways, 15 medals wouldn't suprise me and neither would 35.

And the organizers screwed up big time, just like the Tour de Pologne organizers last year....the fences/boarding were standing in an incredibly unsafe manner again, luckily Sacha Modolo seems to be alright. At least the finish itself was pretty normal, unlike that idiotic stage in Poland where everyone knew it was only a matter of waiting for something terrible to happen.

To be fair, anything that comes anywhere near the current world championships medal table (for any country) is already not complete nonsense It might not be the most realistic outcome, but that table is filled with actual results instead of predictions, so those results are possible.

Exactly my issue with any prediction that looks at it on a per-event basis. Imagine a theoretical country with a 5-10% medal chance in all 339 events. GraceNote would have them ending up with no medals at all (assuming there's no event where 10% medal chance is enough to be in the top-3 countries), even though that would be incredibly unrealistic with 339 of those chances.

Took me a month or two last time I think (when I made a total medal table per country, not one like GraceNote where every event gets a gold, silver and bronze medalist and that's it) and that was with the help of a lot of users around here for specific sports...

That's because it's more fun and only real fans realize that.

Right, got it. Toth is gonna get destroyed!

But historical results mean nothing since it's the current Olympics, not the past ones Which Slovaks have at least a not unrealistic chance for gold? For example Sagan so far recently wouldn't be considered much of a favourite, but he's also Sagan and one would be blind to not at least keep an eye on him

Which is why the damn World Athletics idiots should keep their dirty hands off of the majestic hours of glory that is the 50km No Diniz and no Toth anymore nowadays? Like I said, I'm a little out of touch with athletics due to the lack of big events lately

I really need to start paying more attention, I think I missed most that happened during the COVID-19 pandemic. Kenny Bednarek of all places taking silver? Brazier, Kinyamal, Arop as 800m podium? One Jake Wightman in bronze? Lemecha Girma taking gold?! Masatora Kawano who? Nedasekau, Tamberi, Tobe as high jump podium? KC Lightfoot, the American brother of Amanda Lightfoot which is the only Lightfoot I've ever heard of? JuVaughn Harrison? Bence Halasz with hammer gold? Anderson Peters taking bronze? I know I've missed some stuff and that's on me and that's fine....but I'll drink whatever this writer had I didn't even get to the women yet Just quickly looked and saw Nadine Visser on bronze, that would be quite something

All of the above But went for Chinese Taipei, pretty cool idea and I hope you're going to be able to keep it up for 100 of these

One used to be able to click on the country and see a list of all medals, not anymore Oh well, the most fun about the VMT is usually the people discussing all full of fire and sometimes even anger or frustration, whereas it's really nothing more than something to fill the time instead of a serious prediction for events (that's how Gracenote itself sees it though, of course, but surely we know better )

Oh don't you worry, people in the Netherlands noticed it and are laughing loud about it The only somewhat sensable comparison one can make is with our (Totallympics) summer world championships medal table, where especially France, Great Britain and Germany are WAY higher than Gracenote's prediction. Those three end up with a total of 31 gold medals on the VMT, whereas they have the reigning world champion in 47 (!) Olympic events. Turkey has 13 medals in those events, the VMT gives them a total of 26. As for the Netherlands: 16-16-14 (46) according to the VMT, 15-16-6 (37) in terms of current medals.

Damn (both for the man's family and for Martirosyan). At least according to this site Martirosyan was sober, the man crossed the road in a wrong place and Martirosyan immediately stopped, called an ambulance and helped out as much as possible. I don't know Armenian laws, but if all that is true, I really hope he won't face prison...one can assume his own psychological life is fucked up as well now, with images of what happened for sure haunting him for many years to come... I guess the main question is if he was speeding or something like that?

Wait, the London qualifier was cancelled? Nouchka Fontijn and Enrico Lacruz were going there for the Netherlands (with Fontijn definitely a favorite to qualify), does that mean they're both out of a chance to qualify or is the cancellation accompanied by some compensation? Surely there is some alternative, since otherwise there'd be dozens of quota places without any allocation?

I'm curious what I prediced in the past few Olympics (I know I did 2018 and 2016, probably also 2014 but I'm not sure about that one), I'll take a look when I'm at home

But the same goes for your post before, about the three Olympic medalists. That would be counted as 'three possible medals', but when they are supposed to come from only three people, it's more realistic for that to result in one or two medals (let's say all three have a 60% medal chance, it'd be likely to get 1 or 2 then) Increase the scale to the total medals for countries with dozens of participants with at least a small medal chance and things get incredibly tricky

Sure, but when trying to make things equal, one of the first things - if not the first thing - might be to make the matches, races or games of equal (potential) length. Just like in athletics the 1500m is (rightfully, of course) not considered 'too far' for women anymore and both men and women run the 10k, or the marathon.

You can only swap with teammates nowadays? I'd gladly help Mexico out of their way-too-early-in-the-morning slot

Duuuuuuuuuuuude work at home whenever possible!!

Are those things relative? Because it's even more 'interesting' if it's in absolute numbers, with women still (come on, it's 2021, do women really still need to be told they can't play more than three sets?) playing way, way shorter than men and such. Interesting though, I wonder if it's an American thing. Commentators here, both male and female, luckily never talk about clothing in particular (unless it's the annual "oh yeah brand X has a new model of T-shirt that 500 players are now using") and also don't really mention race, even in the cases where American media would go all "first African-American to do X" Age is mentioned basically only if there are interesting records in play.

Something that might skew how it looks is that only a part of the medals have users representing the countries here A decent sized number of medals will be won by countries who aren't represented here and so won't appear in the predictions..

I like how, when adding everyone's predictions, you'd probably always end up with a hundred more total medals than are actually available in the Olympics Also fun when someone calls athlete A an outsider yet gives like 40% chance

I was all ready to cheer for Om Yun-chol again...it's not every day you see North Korean athletes (like you said) and even more rare to see North Korean athletes who show the kind of emotions Om shows (or even noticeable emotions at all, which after all is one of the main things that makes sports interesting to watch)

This has been in the news here almost literally every day for a while now