Canada's path to victory
Serbia needs just 23 points to mathamatically secure victory (3.29 average).
Canada needs at least 62 points to overtake Serbia (8.86 average). If Serbia scores any points, this average rises.
Voters include,
France - tilting establishment - never awarded Canada more than 5 points!
Czech Republic - tilting anti-establishment (but a new voter) - never awarded Canada more than 5 points! Only once pts to Serbia.
Hungary - leaning establishment - never awarded points to Serbia. Once 9 pts for Canada.
Kazakhstan - leaning establishment - REGULAR POINTS TO CANADA (3x9, 5, 2x4, 1). Serbia got points only once.
Greece - safe anti-establishment - POINTS TO SERBIA IN EVERY CONTEST TO DATE, 12 points for Shawn Mendes
Mexico - tilting establishment - 12 points to Canada (2017 Open) with solid points otherwise, Serbia with minor points at best
Malta - leaning establishment - REGULAR POINTS TO CANADA (12, 11, 10, 2x7, 5). Serbia not so much (9, 8, 3x1).
Canada needs a surprising medal from either France or Czechia (and good points from the other). Hungary to disregard Serbia once again. Kazakhstan and Malta to step in with further medals. Mexico to be in their favor as well.
And finally Greece to award them points.