My predictions:
Male: Alcaraz or Marchand
Female: Biles or McIntosh
Youth: McIntosh
Men's team: USA basketball
Women's team: Spain football
Breakthrough: Extremely difficult to predict, possible candidates: Kharun, Pan Zhanle, Wiffen, Heilman, Laros, Zhoya, Neugebauer, Topic, Furlani, Zaire-Emery
Comeback: Extremely difficult to predict, possible candidates: Dressel, Miller-Uibo, Thompson-Herah, Van Niekerk, Mihambo, Wlodarczyk, Thiam, Peaty, Nadal
Breakthrough: Only athletes who never won an individual medal on the world stage before
Comeback: Athletes who underperformed the previous year or didn't compete due to injury
I think in a year with summer olympic games most awards will go to athletes who excelled at the olympics, which will make it difficult for athletes in winter sports to shine. If this wouldn't be an olympic year, i could have seen someone like Botn win the breakthrough award. Maybe it would be better to have all awards seperated by winter and summer sports. Personally i find it difficult to hand awards to winter sports athletes when they compete against summer sports athletes (since there is usually more competition in summer sports).